US wheat futures found downward pressure from the open. Wheat at no stage during the session succeeding to push above the previous day’s closing price and settled the day at or just above the sessions low. Hard red winter wheat futures were hit the hardest, shedding 18.5c/bu (AUD$10.11) on the May contract. An OK US weather map for the corn belt, soft red winter wheat belt and spring wheat area also seen as bearish.
All the feedback on Ukraine wheat export negotiations remains positive. News that Ukraine and Poland have come to an access agreement to ship Ukraine wheat through Polish ports was considered bearish price. Turkey announced they are working towards making sure the Black Sea Grain Corridor deal for Ukraine exports is extended past the March 18th expiry date.
Sharply lower week on week export loading out of the USA didn’t help confirm a much-needed pickup in demand for US wheat was occurring.

Technical trade ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE report also weighed on the market. Some punters anticipating further increases in production estimates from both Australia and Russia.
ABARES aren’t helping, again increasing Australian wheat production from 36.6mt to a record 39.2mt. ABARES also increased barley production for the 2022 crop to 14.1mt, much higher than the current 2023 estimate of just 9.9mt. Canola production was also called a new record at 8.3mt, smashing the previous record by over 20%. The 2023 canola crop is expected to be much lower, still large at 5.4mt, but well below the previous season.

Algeria is in the market for 50kt of durum. Pakistan was said to have bought 450kt of Russian wheat. There is talk of Pakistan running low on US dollars.