The USDA are predicting that the US will plant around 1.78 million acres of durum this year compared to 1.63 million acres last year. Big call looking at the current prices, they have fallen a lot since this data was collected. As usual the USDA continue to play 30-60 days behind the real world, a bit like their Federal Reserve Bank on economic policies.
Is anyone taking notice of what is going on in France, the left and right of politics are coming together to protest recent political moves from Macron. Some 1 million people on the streets of Paris protesting anything from changes to the retirement age, to agricultural policy changes and the general cost of living. Ukraine is also starting to see more and more resistance to their constant request for handouts. Silly season in the ag markets could take on a whole new dimension of crazy in 2023.
US wheat futures continue to see a lack of interest, particularly the SRWW contract at Chicago. The first three active contracts closed unchanged from the previous session; I haven’t seen that before. The HRW and Spring wheat futures markets both closed higher. Spring wheat futures getting a boost from the USDA acreage report that suggest US sown area at 10.57ma, back about 2% on last year.
A welcome warm break is forecast for the US spring wheat belt and the Canadian Prairies, we’ll see if recent falls in new crop durum prices result in a correction of the 2% decline in spring wheat area in a month or two.
Australian and Chinese officials are set to meet next week to discuss the approaching WTO ruling on barley exports from Australia. This could see Aussie barley heading to China within 90 days unless there’s an appeal. With Aussie barley much cheaper than the nearest alternative I feel appeal is unlikely, but I’ll be sceptical until I see the first boat loaded, shipped, and paid for.