4/4/23 Prices

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Canola and rapeseed futures were nicely higher in overnight trade. The links between crude oil and vege oils proving to be the catalyst.
With OPEC members and some other oil producing nations agreeing to lower crude production by about 1.5mb/d, the impact this would have on crude oil values and futures was obvious. Whether or not the 6% increase in CME crude futures is sustainable, only time will tell. The increase does help vege oils, thus rapeseed and canola bounce of recent lows though, so it’s a good thing, maybe.

The USDA released their first weekly US crop progress report for 2023. There’s not a lot to see just yet. Cold weather keeping most sowing operations to a minimum. Those weekend tornadoes have to rate a mention too, there were plenty of them.
Texas has sown 43% of their sorghum, that’s just a little behind the 45% 5-year average. Kansas and Oklahoma are yet to strike a blow. Still in Texas the USDA note that 23% of the winter wheat crop is in head. That’s just a little ahead of the 20% average. Missouri is just 1% in head and there’s nothing in head acres Kansas and Oklahoma. The US winter wheat conditions rating is bad, just 30% of the crop is rated G/E and 36% is rated P/VP. Kansas is in bad shape, just 16% of the HRW there is rated G/E and a massive 57% is rated P/VP. Kansas usually produces about 20% of the US wheat crop. Kansas subsoil moisture is meased at 80% short to very short.
Pictures of shot and sprung wheat, canola and chickpeas in India are emerging. Rain has decimated some of the major winter cereal producing regions of northern Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Quantifying the losses may take some time. Normal production is roughly 2mt+ of chickpeas and 40mt+ of wheat across the far NW of India.

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