Monday:

There were some sharp moves higher in 1CWAD 13 durum bids across SE Saskatchewan yesterday. The average price for a November lift moved to C$315.31 ex farm, up roughly C$9.08/t from the previous day according to PDQ. This is in contrast to a lower spring wheat price, the average price for milling wheat slipping roughly C$2.98 / tonne across SE Sask yesterday.
French durum values were more subdued, in AUD per tonne the day to day conversion out of Port La Nouvelle was down a few cents per tonne, even once the lower AUD had been taken into the equation.
The move higher in Canadian values may have something to do with the lower than expected yields from SaskAg. The SaskAg average yield is well below the StatsCanada estimate. The rise in up country durum values in Canada was reflected at the port. FOB values increasing by roughly US$5.00 per tonne to US$315 out of Vancouver, and US$325 FOB St Lawrence. The higher basis also brings Canadian durum prices inline with EU prices C&F Italy.
Still on durum we see Kazakhstan confirming they will be able to move durum to market through Russian ports. It had been speculated that a Russian import ban on Kazak wheat may have impeded this route to market but Kazak official have denied this over night.

Both US and Paris wheat futures continued to hand back recent gains. If yesterday is any indication of what may come on Monday we could continue to see local basis improve, greatly countering the fall in US futures. International wheat values, once converted to a local AUD price per tonne, using a common consumer port, were generally flat to firmer. Argentine, Black Sea and US white wheat out of the PNW all AUD$2.00 to AUD$4.00 higher, thanks in part to the weaker AUD. The forecast for the wheat producing region of Brazil continues to look very wet, while further south across Argentina the dry weather is now delaying summer crop planting as well as seeing yield estimates for their wheat crop being reduced. Some showers predicted for W.Russia this week.

Tuesday:

The US corn harvest is progressing well, now estimated at 30% complete versus the 5 year average of 27%. There are slight delays in the far north of the corn belt and where Hurricane Helene caused some flooding but generally the US corn harvest is progressing well and crop quality ratings remain unchanged week on week at 49/15 – 64% G/E.
The US soybean harvest is nearing the half way mark at 47% complete, 13pts ahead of the 5 year average. The condition rating of US beans declined 1pt to 51/12 – 63% G/E. Cotton condition in the US continues to decline, now rated 26/3-29% G/E with 26% of the US crop now picked.
43% of the US sorghum crop is in the bin, weekly condition rating is unchanged at 37/8-45% G/E. Sorghum values out of the Gulf of Mexico were generally a little lower overnight. Taking the weaker AUD into account the move in AUD / tonne is roughly about AUD$1.60/t higher for this mornings sorghum conversion.

US wheat futures found support from technical buying, some assume fueled by the on going conflict in the Black Sea and the possible escalation of the Middle East conflict. US wheat export inspections offered little support after last weeks good effort. Volume was towards the low end of pre report estimates, coming in at 365kt. Not bad, but bigger would have been better.
International import wheat tenders remain a little thin. Bangladesh looking for 48kt and S.Arabia announced they plan to purchase an additional 300kt prior to the new year. Month on month Russian wheat exports were estimated to be back 12.3% according to Sovecon. Egypt confirmed they have purchased 11.57mt of wheat this year, a year on year increase of roughly 30%, the majority of that being from the Black Sea region. Russian FOB wheat values continue to creep higher, dragging regional values and international values higher. Russian wheat harvest is now estimated at 93% complete and is nearing 84mt. We have another USDA WASDE report out of Friday night our time. Last month the USDA pegged Russian wheat production at 83mt.