International wheat futures continue to push lower. The move in US futures was reflected in values out of the US Pacific Northwest, spring wheat values there falling sharply. White wheat values out of the PNW remained unchanged at the FOB level. Canadian spring wheat values did not slip as far as either MGEX futures or US offers out of the PNW. The average ex farm bid out of SE Saskatchewan fell roughly C$1.30 / tonne for a Jan25 lift to C$269.85 / tonne.
Across the Atlantic at Paris milling wheat futures were lower, shedding €2.50 in the December 24 slot and €3.25 in the March 25 slot. Cash wheat values FOB Rouen were lower by roughly AUD$1.10 from yesterday’s conversion, the weaker AUD helping.
World cash wheat values did not appear to fall in line with US futures, although US offerings more closely reflected the move in their futures market. Black Sea wheat offers were higher, and most other major exporters saw minimal changes in local or FOB offers for milling wheat in comparison to US futures.
Rapeseed futures at Paris were lower, shedding €5.25 in the Feb25 slot. Winnipeg canola futures were hit hard, losing C$17.00 in the January slot. The move in Winnipeg futures was reflected in cash bids across SE Sask. The average ex farm price there falling C$19.18 / tonne for a Dec24 lift.

The Russian wheat harvest is nearing completion, the final estimate appears to being coming in close to 86mt, this includes grain harvested in occupied territory. To get a better understanding of Black Sea production one will need to combine Ukraine and Russian wheat volume over the last few years to understand the changes. If we use the private estimate for Russia of 86mt, the combined Russian / Ukraine wheat crop year on year has increased by roughly 6.24%. If we use the USDA October WASDE estimate for Russia, just 82mt, the increase is just 2.34%. Either way it is a year on year increase, it does make you wonder why Russian FOB values continue to creep higher though. Overnight Russian 11.5% milling wheat values FOB Black Sea were up over AUD$10.00 from yesterdays conversion, yes some of that is the AUD weakness but not all of it.