US wheat futures were firmer, not as positive as the previous session but heading the right way, fueled somewhat by good weekly sales and loading’s. Paris milling wheat futures were lower, the Dec slot shedding €0.50 / tonne. Chicago soybean futures were stronger, lending support to Paris rapeseed futures but Winnipeg canola futures found little help from either beans or rapeseed, shedding C$7.00 in the January slot. Ex farm bids across SE Saskatchewan confirmed weakness in canola wasn’t isolated to the futures market, the average cash bid there falling C$7.00 for a January lift.
US soybeans found support from an announcement of 2 x 133kt flash sales, one was confirmed as heading to China, the other was filed as unknown, one would assume China.
Paris rapeseed futures, once converted to AUD per tonne and compared to yesterdays conversion, is up about AUD$10.48 / tonne. The Winnipeg canola conversion comparison is down about AUD$8.82 / t. Using the EU as a importer this does indicate that Australian canola values are very good here and are unlikely to compete with Canadian canola into Europe at current values. Australia canola into the Asian market is also more expensive that the Canadian product moving into Asia from the Pacific Northwest. If this is addressed in the short term it may weigh on local prices. Currently local prices continue to firm as the trade look to cover track shorts, but this market is volatile and buyers have been reviewing, adjusting, or withdrawing bids most days this week.

Private wheat production estimates out of Russia were a little lower. Continued government “intervention” is expected to see a reduction in exports as we move through the winter / spring period for the Black Sea. The USA Foreign Agricultural Service – FAS, has projected a 18% decrease in Ukraine wheat exports compared to this year, which have remained close to the 5 year average, due to the Russian occupation. The lower production but average exports has seen grain stocks dwindle, falling to there lowest level in 20 years. Wheat carry in is expected to be just 452kt.