14/11/24 Prices

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US and Paris wheat futures suffered another night of loses. Paris milling wheat shed €4.75 (AUD$7.73) nearby and €3.00 (AUD$4.88) in the March slot. US soft red winter wheat futures were back 11.25c/bu (AUD$6.36) in the December slot. Both HRWW and spring wheat futures fared better, HRWW at Chicago shedding 5.75c/bu (AUD$3.25) and spring wheat at Minneapolis closing 6.75c/bu (AUD$3.82) lower.
The Aussie dollar was sharply lower against the US dollar, and most of our major trading partners, including Europe and India. The fall in the AUD was not enough to buffer the decline in US wheat futures but it does buffer the decline in most FOB origin values for wheat out of our major export competition bar the United States. PNW values were back generally less than a dollar FOB, not slipping as low as the futures market did, once the AUD is considered.

Sorghum values out of the US Gulf were back roughly AUD$1.50 to AUD$2.00 when compared to yesterday’s conversion. The decline in US dollars at the port was more than expected. Slipping lower, as if playing catch up to what had generally been weaker Chinese indicators for both sorghum and corn all week. Last weeks US weekly exports report is due out tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if US sorghum shipments to China remain as strong as they have been.

Rapeseed futures at Paris were back just €0.50 nearby, in the Feb contract, but slipped €3.50 or more in the outer months. Ukraine FOB values were lower in USD but the AUD took care of that loss, and some, once converted to AUD per tonne. The Winnipeg canola contract was sharply lower. Although Chicago soybean futures were lower, just 2.75c/bu in the Jan slot, the fall in canola futures was much greater. Probably more influenced by the large decline in palm oil which slipped 154MYR (AUD$53.38), 3.15% lower. Palm oil had similar loses across all months out to at least May 2025. The sharp decline in palm oil this week will weigh on canola prices going forward. Indonesia’s announcement to require a 40% biodiesel mix appearing to be overlooked by the punters.

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