There wasn’t a lot of bullish news in the world press to warrant further upside last night but what was out there wasn’t exactly bearish either. Canadian wheat and canola stocks came in well under the local trade estimates. While still fairly high, wheat at 16.6mt and canola at 6.6mt, they were 1.7mt and 100kt respectively shy of the average guess.
The one grain that should interest us the most is the Canadian durum number, stocks came in at 4.1mt, yes that is up double the normal but it is also 1.1mt lower than the average trade estimate. There is also the quality aspect to consider when talking about the durum stocks there, although I feel this conversation has fallen on deaf ears all year.
PDQ info, a grain price reporting agency from Canada, show that 1CWAD values in central Saskatchewan have done little in recent days and are still bid at C$259 / tonne. This is about a AUD$360 equivalent NTP NTL value, not that that makes any difference to our local bids of $320 NTP.
There was some further buying noted in the US wheat futures markets. The punters are on both sides of the fence at present and funds seem happy holding, if not all of their short positions, a large slice of what they had accrued by late last week. The crop tour results were a little bearish but acreage reports remain bullish for US values and quantifying storm losses likely a longer term quest.