Prices 12/5/17

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US futures markets seem happy with where wheat is currently priced. Corn and soybean futures were pushed lower on the back of a better weather outlook that saw sunny days ahead next week to finish planting before the next fall.
Futures for May will close today so by Monday the nearby contract will become July in wheat, corn & beans. There is still around 30c/bu ($15) carry in the wheat market between July and Dec for those looking to swaps.

China is expecting a year on year decline in corn stocks of around 20mt, sounds like a lot doesn’t it, well it is but it will still leave China carrying around 81.3mt of corn, 42% of total world stocks. This is a good start and with further reductions in corn area again this year we should seen another drop in stocks this time next year. That should mean that by about 2020 corn stocks in China will be roughly at an acceptable level. The USDA peg Chinese production at 215mt, a couple of million tonnes above the official Chinese estimate. Chinese consumption is roughly 238mt and it expected to increase a little as tariffs on DDG have pushed their domestic market towards consuming their own corn above cheaper feed imports.
The cheaper internal price for corn will, as you may expect, continue to limit demand for grains like sorghum and barley.

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