Prices 20/11/18

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US wheat and corn values found selling pressure from weakness in the soybeans pit. Nearby beans crashed 18c/bu (AUD$9.00) lower at Chicago. Both HRW and SRW at Chicago saw losses of 8c/bu (AUD$4.00) while the spring wheat contract at Minneapolis was relatively flat. The sharp decline in US soybeans futures rippled across both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed which saw significant downside for the session.
Continued speculation over US / China trade was said to be the key to the downside in soybeans. Weekly US soybeans export inspections came in on cue and are meeting the targets being set by the USDA. Looking deeper into the technical side of the market  holds the key though. January beans are overbought, well overbought and in theory need a couple of lower sessions to correct this.
US wheat futures are struggling to meet the weekly export estimates set by the USDA in order to achieve their annual sales requirement. Weekly port inspections (509kt) came in at the trade estimated range but still need to average 647kt to make the mark.
The USA is picking up wheat business in Asia with the Pacific NW terminals loading the lion’s share of US exports. Values out of the PNW are roughly US$233 FOB, it costs about US$27 to ship from there to Japan. This could indicate that WA white wheat, offered at a premium to US wheat of about US$30, might be stretching it a little. Traditionally we tend to see a premium more like US$20 – $25. over US wheat. Russian milling wheat would work out at very close to the same number as US wheat into Asia but would be a lesser quality than both the US and Australian product at present. US wheat is currently priced to sell.

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