A few weeks ago the punters were talking the AUD down to 68c, this morning all the head lines are “buy the AUD” or “AUD to outperform Euro” or other such speculation. I’m still not convinced these guys simply do nothing more than talk their book.
Goldman Sachs are suggesting 2019 as the year for the AUD. How they pick this with the AUD and Yuan so closely linked has me beat. Or are they simply implying that the other currencies will be rubbish to trade in comparison to the volatility being created by the USA on the Chinese economy. Or is it a smoke screen as that drive the sterling to the bus stop.
Some of the speculation is based around an increase in Aussie interest rates early next but one can’t help but think this would be political suicide for those at the gate. Our economy at a voters level is far from strong and the bush especially needs a year or two to recover. A rise in rates would be a real punch in the guts considering the current costs of living and debt level of many hurt by drought.

On the grain front US markets were sideways with SRW and HRW a tad firmer while DNS was a tad lower along with corn. The contract left bleeding in the corner overnight was Paris rapeseed, on the nearby, which fell E4.00 / tonne from the previous settlement. A reduction in Chinese demand for soymeal appears to be rippling through the oilseed market having an impact on all but US soybeans. Low oil in both the EU and Canada is also a major concern. The US trade has been busy finding alternative buyers and judging by the weekly sales volume for soybeans they have been doing a good job.