It is becoming apparent while the punters stood back and talked up the US to be the country to fill the void left by 2018 wheat production shortfalls in the EU, Russia and Australia it has indeed been their northern neighbour Canada taking advantage of the new opportunities.

In the case of wheat Canadian production increased 6% year on year to 31.8mt. Exports were able to counter this increase with a 13.5% increase in sales taking first half exports to 10mt according to StatsCan. This has resulted in Canadian stocks coming out some 3.4mt lower than the trade estimate.
Not so great a news for durum though, stocks rose 12.5% to 5.3mt. Although this is below the trade estimate it is still high and without further sales the carryover into the 2019 sales year may become burdensome.

In the US futures market we see nearby wheat relatively flat to firmer but the outer month for the new crop were lower by about AUD$4.00 / tonne for HRW. US soybean producers must be starting to wonder what needs to be announced in order to rally the soybean market. The USDA produced a 600kt sale a day or two ago, a 2.6mt sale last night, both to China, and the punters at Chicago barely lifted their head above their late for a glance. Nearby soybeans moved 1.75c/bu higher.
It appears the punters don’t know where to stand ahead of Fridays USDA delayed data dump. Monday could be interesting.