Prices 7/2/19

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It’s all about the AUD this morning, it slipped by close to on average 1.5% against all the majors. The RBA has signalled a possible interest rate cut as the global economy slows. Now we just need the banks to pass any adjustments lower on to the retail consumers. From a retail perspective things are getting very tough, if what is being experienced from a regional perspective is being experienced across the greater economy than any form of interest rate reduction will be very welcome. The agricultural sector is probably the hardest hit sector of the Australian economy at present due to the ongoing drought on the east coast.

The US futures market struggled to find any sustainable fundamental reason to push prices one way or the other. The trade appear to be waiting for the USDA data dump on Friday night, our time. In the last week US soybean sales to China have topped 3mt yet the soybean market has remained relatively unmoved. The trade appear to have this demand factored in, or it could simply be a buy the rumour sell the fact scenario.
US wheat futures moved lower on technical selling ahead of Friday’s reports. As mentioned earlier this week the market was a little overbought so a move to more neutral ground prior to reports being released was half expected.
Looking around the world wheat values were mostly flat to firmer although Russian milling wheat spreads to the higher grades did narrow a little. Cash offers out of most US ports were higher, moving against the trend in futures.

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