US soybean futures were the big mover overnight. Caught up in technical trade but also spurred on by a reduction in the Brazilian crop soybean futures closed AUD$6.50 / tonne higher on the nearby contract.
Historical adjustments in last Friday night’s USDA data dump also saw S.American carryover reduced significantly. The USDA has for some time pegged Argentine soy stocks higher than official Argentine numbers. The adjustments on Friday night has shrunk the gap somewhat but there is still a gap. You may put this down to “talking their books” if you like but even though the gap  has been greatly reduced it is still significant at 4.37mt. Brazil is also expected to see further reductions over last months projected numbers, CONAB pick a crop of 115.3mt versus 118.8mt last month.
All this shuffling in soybean paper did result in a better close for ICE canola but Paris rapeseed futures continue slip lower.
The wires coming out of the USA tend to link the rally in beans to progress with trade talks with China and technical trade. I wonder if they define progress as trying to convince the Chinese there are simply less soybeans in the world so you better buy ours. There has been no official reported progress in trade negotiations. The fact we are not about to see another government shut down in the USA is a bit of a bonus though. Unless we see a deal done before March 1st there is still a real chance that US import tariffs on selected Chinese goods will increase from 10% to 25%.
CME Platts Aussie FOB wheat futures were steady at US$285 March, so roughly AUD$447 port, this is a cash settled contract though.