Good weekly export data out of the USDA helped US corn futures claw back some of the previous sessions losses. Better weather in the short to midterm kept a lid on any possible rally getting away.
Technically we see July SRW futures at Chicago significantly over sold which should also help any attempt the market makes to rally in the short term. With July corn at Chicago also over sold any rally in either, wheat or corn, may flow to the other in the short term, soybeans not so much. A 24% rally in crude oil didn’t hurt corn futures either.
The physical side of the market saw some good weekly export data for the US with 1.35mt of old crop corn booked for export and another 337kt of new crop confirmed, taking bookings to almost 1.7mt for corn this week.
US wheat is seeing more favourable export opportunities in the near term. The slowing of Black Sea offers, the poor weather in Europe, and nothing from Australia until the new crop in December all help the USA. The recent decline in prices and the better demand outlook is expected to result in better US wheat exports until we see N.Hemisphere harvest pick up.
US weekly wheat export sales data was also good with 650kt of booked this week. This takes annual US wheat sales up to 21.8mt, up 6% on last year’s sales for this time.
Even the International Grains Council punted 2020-21 world wheat production lower in their monthly report. Although the IGC is still expecting a record wheat crop of 764mt this number is 4mt less than the March estimate. Consumption was pegged 5mt lower !