11/5/20 Prices

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The scouts are starting to pick up the level of frost damage across Oklahoma and Kansas, this is rolling into some underlying strength in HRW futures. The prospect of further frost damage this weekend also helped the wheat markets close higher. I’m not sure about this weekend though, most models show the coldest weather still well north, in the Dakota’s. It will get cold in Kansas, possibly as low as 2C at Topeka but it’s not predicted to be the -7C type of temperatures we would expect to see decimate things.

Week on week Chicago corn is higher, soft wheat is higher, HRW is lower and MGEX spring wheat futures are higher. The Canadian canola market is higher and Paris rapeseed futures are also higher. The AUD is basically the same as where it was last Friday too.
The US found support for soybeans thanks to further export sales, this triggered some technical buying at the board and pushed values higher into the close.
We have a USDA WASDE report out on the 12th US time. With both soft and hard wheat futures at Chicago technically oversold it may be hard to push wheat values lower prior to the report, in fact one would probably expect to see some strength in US wheat futures on Monday as technical buying moves wheat to a more neutral position prior to the release of the WASDE.
The ones to watch in the WASDE will be Black Sea production and any impact the dry April weather in Europe had on wheat and oilseeds. Thoughts that Russian export quotas will be touched by mid-May is also viewed as bullish wheat in the short term.

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