It’s not only the Australian barley market that is looking less than exciting at the moment. Recent reports out of the UK are also advising producers to be ready for an extended period of low prices for barley. The N.African feed market may be the key with pockets of drought across that region expected to create a small number of export opportunities for the European farmer.
The large amount of global corn production being pencilled in for 2020-21 is a major thorn in the side of the barley market. Other bearish factors include the downturn in malt demand and the increase in international ending stocks.
The expectation is for the current wide spread to wheat to persist throughout the year or until world coarse grain production falls, but that isn’t expected to happen anytime soon.

Overnight grain futures markets were generally flat with most commodities either side of unchanged. ICE canola put on a couple of dollars as the market waived goodbye to the May contract. Interesting to see the Platts Aussie APW FOB futures contract at Chicago a little firmer for both the nearby and the first quarter of 2021. The punters pegged the January slot at US$230.50 / tonne. Rolling that out as a track number would give you something like $329 NTP less rail. Makes the current values feel a little soft.
Just to rub a little salt into the freshly opened wound to the Australia barley market China have confirmed barley imports from the USA will commence as per Phase 1 trade deal now a phytosanitary protocol is in place. Have fun guys, let’s see what that costs you.