24/8/20 Prices

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US wheat futures were firmer, partly helped by better corn futures and partly by further technical buying from the punters. There is speculation US wheat exports will pick up as we move away from the harvest period and the US dollar remains a little lower than it has been over the last couple of seasons.
With export bids for HRW out of the PNW of the US around US619c/bu DLVD-R/B ,December, it would indicate that this wheat would be able to compete with current Australian values into north Asia but may struggle a little against Aussie wheat into SE Asia.
With the extraction rate for Aussie wheat  better than US HRW it will struggle from a preferential basis even if offered at parity to Australia white wheat. So basically this might be indicating that the rally in US futures this week has just slightly taken the edge of US wheat into the Asian market in the short term.
The CME Platts APW1 FOB Australian wheat futures contract settled at US$231 for a January 2021 slot. This indicated APW1 ex farm LPP should be worth roughly $249. With SFW1 into Tamworth at $239, it might be suggesting an APW1 – SFW1 spread of $25, that may or may not be fair depending on the quality of the LPP crop in the long run. At the moment it is nothing more than an indicator though.

Dalian corn futures for May 2021 settled at Y2337 / tonne (US$337.74). This tends to indicate that sorghum values here may also be a little under par for the new crop. An interesting year is unfolding, keep a close eye on the DCT market for sorghum in 2021.

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