Wheat futures in the US were torn between the bearish news out of Canada and the lower than expected weekend rainfall across the US corn belt.
Statistics Canada came out with an all wheat estimate of 35,739,800 tonnes, up 11% on last year. Both better yields and more acres sown are the reason behind the increase. The durum estimate was increased dramatically and is now pegged at 6.92mt, the second largest durum crop on record for Canada and over 1mt larger than the 5 year average.
One might have expected to see a reduction in bids across SW Saskatchewan on the back of this news but in fact cash prices for 1CWAD13 actually increased C$3.37 per tonne for a December pickup, according to PDQ. At C$270.67 cash bids across SW Sask would roll over to an equivalent port price at Newcastle of around AUD$381. Although with some movement higher, in US dollar values, shipping may derail any moves higher here today, although the AUD is firmer against the USD it may not be enough to counter the higher ocean freight. US wheat futures were mixed, spring wheat was lower, hard and soft wheat at Chicago a little higher. The US punter continues to anticipate good export demand from China and potentially less competition from Europe and Argentina on the back of smaller crops.

Canola production in Canada was pegged at 19.4mt, down a smidge on last year, and 400kt lower than the 5 year average. Better yields across a smaller area are expected. Average yields are expected to come in around 41.6bu/ac (2.33t/ha).