2/12/20 Prices

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Both ICE canola futures and cash bids for canola out of SW Saskatchewan improved overnight. Futures closed C$5.40 higher in the Feb slot while cash bids for a Feb lift XF SW Sask rallied C$4.99 to C$556.34 ex farm there.
On the back of an envelope using the same basis as you might for durum out of the same region you can convert this value to an equivalent bid ex farm NW NSW. It comes out somewhere around AUD$640 delivered Newcastle equivalent or around AUD$605 ex farm LPP.
Still in SW Saskatchewan we see the average durum bid for 1CWAD13 at an ex farm level was flat at C$296.98 for a Feb 21 lift. Using the same basis but using Italy as a buyer not Europe we can also convert the durum bid to a number close to AUD$380 Newcastle port equivalent. Current bids into the port are at AUD$380 so very close to export parity. DR1 moved off the LPP with a bid of $332 site to the grower yesterday, which is probably very close to the Canadian equivalent value or maybe $5 lower at a FOB level. Local durum values really need to get some help from currency to bounce off current levels unless Canadian basis takes a sharp jump in the near term.

Thailand are tendering for 107kt of feed wheat this week. This will be interesting to see as the volume of feed wheat expected in Australia is decreasing quickly as quality across the entire wheat belt is very good.
Russia was the lowest offer for wheat into Egypt in the last tender. Cargill offered up 55kt at US$261.85 CnF. This is a little under values off the west coast of Australia but shows that Aussie wheat is almost working into almost every consumer market at current values.

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