18/12/20 Prices

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The Aussie dollar cracked 76c as the US government continues to fumble the aid and stimulus package. The AUD also found some assistance higher from local jobs data. Unemployment was better than expected at 6.8% in November. Looking at how slow retail is in the lead up to Christmas one might assume this number will change a fair bit come January.

In the futures market ICE canola is the big mover overnight putting on C$12.30 on the nearby contract. A quick survey of cash bids out of SW Saskatchewan show basis was also strong in Canada with prices to the grower moving higher.
Soybean futures were firmer, finding support from better than expected weekly export sales, mainly to China. At 922kt soybean sales were above most trade estimates. China picked up 202kt of beans and there was confirmation China would be the recipient of a further 717kt of soybean sales previously noted as unknown in past weeks data.
Weekly export sales for wheat were pencilled in at 540kt, not bad but not great. This puts the US just about on par with this time last year.
Between the good news in soybeans and corn (US corn sales were 1.924mt, their 4th largest weekly sales number this year), wheat and canola futures found little resistance for their move higher. The cash wheat market, in the US at least, seems less focused on support from row crops. Wheat is already struggling to buy feed demand in the States and corn will need to continue to climb to make this any different.
Drought in Russia and production issues in the N.Hemisphere in December will need to be repeated in April to have a major impact.

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