19/2/21 Prices


The trade had to digest the latest USDA planted acres predictions report last night. A report that appeared a little bearish for corn and soybeans but didn’t hurt wheat at all. Although the USDA predict winter wheat acres to increase by around 5%, to 32mac. The higher acres projected for corn and soybeans are likely to come at the expense of spring wheat and durum area in the northern plains. This may finally see higher protein wheat again trade at a premium to SRWW, an anomaly that has persisted for too long in US futures markets.
Lower carry in wheat stocks are also expected to decrease overall supply of US wheat moving through 2021 into 2022.
Talk of an increase in Canadian canola acres at the expense of spring wheat and durum wheat area also remains bullish new crop wheat.

Pakistan hit the market with a 300kt wheat tender. This tender will close on March 2nd. Pakistan has been expected to re-enter the market for a month or two now. Imports are expected to continue through to the arrival of their new crop in April / May. In November they picked up 340kt of wheat. This tender will be worth watching considering the new Russian pricing.
Tunisia are also in the market for a 100kt of milling wheat, 92kt of durum wheat and 100kt of feed barley. Canadian durum values are flat.
S.Korea picked up 55kt of optional origin feed wheat overnight at US$309 C&F. This would roughly convert back to an Aussie port value in the vicinity of AUD$310 port, or around $280 ex farm LPP. Indicating local feed markets are pretty close to export parity, if not a smidge low.