22/2/21 Prices

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Tunisia picked up 100kt of milling wheat, 92kt of durum wheat and 125kt of feed barley overnight. Delivery for this tender is pencilled in for Mid-March to late April. The durum was said to be purchased at US$384.60 per tonne C&F.
Looking at Canadian cash values for 1CWAD13 ex farm SW Saskatchewan at C$308 it does indicate that Canadian basis may have improved slightly as the sale number does roll out to about US$10 – $15 better than previous basis conversions. On the back of the same envelope as the above conversion it indicates that a DR1 values delivered port Newcastle is probably worth somewhere around AUD$390. This bodes well with the current bid to buy of $375 delivered port, allowing trade margin of roughly AUD$15, you wouldn’t do it for less.
The feed barley leg was said to have gone through at roughly US$13 under their previous tender value.

US wheat futures were lower on further profit taking prior to the weekend. Cash red wheat offers out of the Pacific Northwest fell in line with the move in futures values while white wheat values were unchanged yet again.
Cash bids for 1CWRS 13.5 wheat out of SW Saskatchewan was C$1.79 lower for an April lift at C$282.20 XF. This would, on my envelope, equate to a Newcastle port equivalent, if destined to an Asian market like Japan, of a value somewhere around AUD$336. Yesterday APH was bid into Newcastle port at $320 delivered. Something to keep in mind if there is buying interest in APH wheat next week. Don’t be afraid to offer at AUD$330, if may not get up but it’s a fair value given current global prices.

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