22/3/21 Prices

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An optimistic weather outlook in the US had wheat back on the chopping block while corn and soybeans found support from the bargain hunters after yesterday’s sharp drop in CME futures. With US energy markets closing in the green the spill over support for both corn and soybeans was evident.
Corn also found support from another big sale to China, that’s four this week, the last one being 800kt and making the weekly US sales total to China 3.876mt. ASF doesn’t appear to be dampening demand too much does it. I wonder what China’s actual corn stocks are.
The flip side to ASF is the increase in demand from alternatives to pigs, like chickens and cattle and the additional demand that may place on meal demand. Soybean futures were firmer, as were canola and rapeseed futures, both taking back much of the previous day’s losses.

The French wheat crop is still in pretty good shape even after the official crop rating was reduced 1% to 87% Good / Excellent. This time last year the French soft wheat crop was rated at 63% G/E, so there is little to no concern over the crop at this stage.
Combine the excellent crop ratings in the EU, with the recent increase in projected Russian wheat for 2021 and it’s getting harder to talk global values for wheat higher in the short term.
SovEcon lifted their projected 2021 production estimate for Russia by 3.1mt to 79.3mt. SovEcon also had a stab at Ukraine production estimating 2021 wheat crop at 27.8mt, up 800kt.

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