If you ever needed to have a look at a futures contract that explained the term “short and caught” look no further than the nearby May 21 contract for Paris Rapeseed. Overnight May21 rapeseed futures closed €84.00 / tonne higher, to €681.25 / tonne. The August 21 slot, the next nearest contract, closed €5.25 / tonne higher at €498.50 / tonne. Volume on the May contract was just 974 contracts but there is still open interest of 3,210 contracts, there could be some sleepless nights for those punters.

In the USA Chicago corn futures continued to push higher in the May slot, volume now shrinking and July slot becoming the place to be. July was also firmer but new crop contracts were generally flat to softer. Soft red winter wheat futures at Chicago were firmer across all months but the nearby continues to be the most volatile as open interest shrinks. MGEX spring wheat was firmer across the board, one might expect to see spring wheat values as the leader in this market as that is where the US is driest.
Major US analyst continue to talk wheat up, a market wire this morning reminds us of the highs set in the last US drought back in 2012 when wheat futures traded into the 900c/bu range. Technically the next level of resistance is around 770c/bu. A change in the weather map will destroy any long punters profit in a hurry though. US spring wheat sowing pace is good, they just lack rain.
Russian analyst are suggesting up to 20% of the winter wheat in some regions was taken out by cold weather, winter kill this year. Although recent Russian production estimates have increased month on month overall production is still expected to be 5 – 6mt less than last year.