US grain futures were back to double digit gains overnight, wheat, corn, soybeans and canola futures were all higher.
Reductions to the late corn crop in Brazil appear to be the key to the rally in US corn futures (plus a bit of Chinese demand).
Private forecast for the Brazilian corn crop were reduced by over 5mt. This amounts to as much as a 10% reduction to some estimates over the last couple of months. The seven day forecast for S.America is not predicting the dry weather to change either, with the vast majority of the southern corn belt in Brazil missing out again.
Further south in Argentina the weather is having a more positive impact on wheat sowing. Conditions across the Pampas are pretty good and with 15-30mm predicted over the next 7 days, so things are only going to get better there. The ideal sowing conditions have triggered a round of old crop sales and also have the punters predicting very good sales volume for the 2021-22 marketing year. The good weather has also seen new crop production estimates forecast at the all-time high production of 19mt.

At Chicago, wheat was basically a follower of corn. There was a slight deterioration in the quality of the US and EU winter wheat crops but both reductions are pretty much priced into the equation now. The seven day forecast for the northern half of the US spring wheat belt and the vast majority of the Canadian durum belt remains dry. The GFS model does show a good chance of rain for the SW of N.Dakota and much of S.Dakota and Montana this week. These areas have been very dry so 20-30mm of rain will help recently sown spring wheat.