In the US we see wheat futures either side of unchanged. Spring wheat futures suffered the most with the weather map showing some moisture potentially giving northern producers another week or so before some very hard decisions will be made. There is already reports of some wheat fields in N.Dakota being fed to the cows.
Positioning ahead of tonight’s USDA WASDE report was also a feature of the markets. The punters are expecting to see a slight increase in US wheat stocks. I’m not 100% sure I agree with that.
The main bearish factor remains the weather map in north America. World Ag Weather shows good rain, 25-60mm pushing across much of Saskatchewan tomorrow. Similar falls are also expected across the durum belt of N.Dakota. Realisation of this forecast should put continued pressure on the market over the next couple of days. Not all models agree with the modelling on WAG though.
The ECMWF modelling indicates the system will produce a typical storm pattern with those seeing heavy falls closer to storms while those not near a storm may miss out completely, especially towards the US / Canadian border. If producers miss these storms tomorrow and the midterm modelling is correct there will be more than one wheat field given to live stock or the bailer. There isn’t much on the map for the balance of June. The Regina area of Sask should see good rain tomorrow.
Algeria picked up 400kt of wheat overnight at an assumed price of about US$298 C&F. There is some talk that Argentina and Australia may have got a look in on this sale, unlikely but possible. The US$298 number would roughly equate to AUD$270 port, I don’t see that working.