6/7/21

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The wheat harvest in Russia is underway with fields being harvested across Krasnodar region and also parts of the Volga Valley. Early yield reports are impressive with records being taken in some fields. Early days. Also some rain in the Russian spring wheat regions.
The impressive start to the Russian harvest, good rains across the US corn belt and the prediction for storms across the Canadian Prairies and US spring wheat belt all set a bearish tone to overnight markets.
The weather map for N.America may look very impressive for the US corn and soybean crop but a closer look will confirm that this morning’s prediction of rain for the spring wheat regions of N.America has been backed off a little. The model now showing lesser falls in Canada and storms of 15-30mm across the central and western Dakotas. This isn’t what the producer in Montana, Saskatchewan or Alberta really want to see at the moment and could potentially finish off a number of struggling crops in these regions.

Egypt took the dip in prices as an opportunity to pick up 240kt of Black Sea wheat overnight. The cheapest wheat in the tender came in at US$237.94 / tonne from Romania. The average price was said to come in at US$269.83 / tonne CFR. Although cheaper than a week ago it is still more expensive than their previous tender.
Iran closed last week’s tender to supply 60kt of milling wheat. A purchase has been confirmed but volume and price is lacking in the reports.
Overnight we see Canadian cash bids for Canola sharply lower, -C$28.34 for a Dec lift while spring wheat and durum are a tad firmer.

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