In the US we see the first day results of the spring wheat crop tour having an impact on futures values. The weather outlook also had a major influence, no rain predicted for the Canadian Prairies and the US spring wheat belt for the next two weeks. The fat lady is looking up the play list and choosing a song, N.American spring wheat 2021 is basically dusted.
The spring wheat crop tour yield estimates are not great, as one would expect. The day 1 average yield estimate came in at just 29.5pba, that’s 1.98t/ha or 10.68bags to the acre if you’re old school. Yields appeared better in the east, averaging 2.75t/ha but as the tour moved through central and western N.Dakota things just got uglier.

Durum basis in Canada is going through the roof. The difference between local farm price and the FOB price is widening already. For instance spring wheat basis from C.Sask to west coast FOB is C$91. Durum from the same production region to west coast FOB is as high as C$176/t. Usually one might use C$100 as a rough FOBing estimate for durum to help determine a comparable AUD price per tonne. It will not be that simple this year. Combine this with the potential downgrading of the EU durum crop and one can’t help but think if we pull off a good quality durum crop here this year it may well be towards the higher end of historical values.

Paris rapeseed futures closed the session higher while the ICE canola contract slipped on some profit taking and slowing demand.