Stats Canada updated production estimates for grains overnight.  All wheat pegged at 21.714mt compared to 35.183mt last year, that’s a reduction of almost 13.5mt.
The durum number was pencilled in at 3.545mt, a little higher than some had expected to see. Some recent reports from state and private analyst had projected a number a little closer to 3mt. Either way this is a big year on year reduction for durum. From a global perspective the reduction in Canada alone is a fall in global production of almost 10%.
Cash prices for 1CWAD13 durum across SE Saskatchewan were back around C$15.67 according to PDQ. At C$637.55 ex farm SE Sask for a Dec21 lift it would be comparable to a price of roughly AUD$716 per tonne ex farm LPP. When stacked up again French values for 12% durum into Italy, the Canadian product is expensive. Canadian discounts to a similar protein durum, 12%,  are only about C$10.
French durum FOB La Nouvelle for a Dec slot are mixed but indicated at about US$503, suggesting a C&F Italy price somewhere around US$530 – US$540. French durum into Turkey was noted at US$548 C&F. Turkey is another large manufacturer of pasta, like Italy. Turkey does not have the restrictions of Italy though, and may if needed, blend hard milling wheat with durum to make semolina.
As a price comparison to local values using French durum into Italy we come back with a rough ex farm LPP price of something close to AUD$576 for a high grade DR2 type durum. This would still leave plenty of trade margin in the tank given current new crop business was recently rumoured to change hands at $600 – $615 delivered Newcastle port for DR1.