16/9/21 Prices

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International markets are still consuming the latest Stats Canada data. The reductions in wheat and canola were a bullish treat for a market which was in some sense beginning to stagnate a little.
Overnight cash prices for spring wheat out of SE Saskatchewan rallied C$6.20 for a December lift, averaging C$382.35 ex farm. Cash bids for canola out of SE Sask were also firmer, closing the day at C$860.86 ex farm, an increase of about C$9.39 per tonne. The increase in cash numbers was a little higher than moves in both Paris rapeseed futures +E3.00 on the nearby and Winnipeg canola +C$7.50 on the nearby.

Canada was not the only major exporter to adjust production estimates lower this week.  France AgriMer on Wednesday lowered its estimate for French soft wheat production to 36.06mt. The reduction was closely followed by a reduction in projected exports from 10.5mt to 9.6mt. The lower exports didn’t prevent a sharp decline in the ending stocks estimate which fell from 3.7mt in July to a projected amount of 2.9mt by June next year.

Russian winter wheat sowing is progressing well apart from a few areas. Sowing in the Volga valley is lagging with a combination of initial dry weather followed by wet weather resulting in about 800kha remaining unsown there. Generally though Russian wheat sowing has progressed well with about 8.5mha now sown, fractionally behind the same time last year. High domestic prices have some expecting a record area.

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