Chicago soybean futures bucked the trend lower in wheat and corn, putting on 20c/bu (AUD$10.39) in the March / May slots. Nearby Paris rapeseed was sharply high, up E36.50 per tonne but the big increase was not reflected in the new crop contracts which were a touch lower by the close.  At Winnipeg old crop canola futures were mixed, the nearby March contract shedding C$4.40 while the May / July / Nov contracts were a smidge higher, later months were lower.
The strength in US soybean futures was both technical and sales driven. Predictions of a smaller Brazilian crop didn’t hurt US prospects either but the main driver was weekly sales data towards the higher end of expectations and the China label appearing next to roughly 50% of US bean sales.
The risk off game drove wheat lower, Ukraine / Russian tension calming somewhat over the weekend. Recent wheat sales out of Russia were cheaper than previous sales. This had led to a reduction in the current export tax for wheat as well. I hate to say it but the Russian “export tax” system appears to be serving its purpose at present. Russian exports have decreased significantly, export volume has been acceptable and domestic prices appear to be stabilising at a sustainable level for both consumer and producer but increasing domestic stocks may weigh on the world USDA S&D tables this month.
Weather condition in both Ukraine and SE Russia appear to be favourable for winter crop production this week. Further east in Kazakhstan high winds and temperatures down to -28C, not so much. Winter wheat only makes up around 5% of the Kazak wheat crop so there is not a lot at risk at present.