The US dollar continues to slide after hitting a 19 month peak at the end of last week. This has seen the value of the Aussie dollar increase again overnight, countering the potential move higher in US grain futures. The US Fed continue to talk of higher interest rates to curb their “transitionary” inflation. Fixing supply side price increases by reducing demand capability does appear to sound somewhat counter-productive though doesn’t it.
We are seeing this slowly playing out in the grain market. The higher cost of inputs are at the stage where they are starting to control the area of production, potentially reducing supply but at the same time reducing farm income as demand capability is also reduced by higher cost on the consumers buy side as well.

Chicago soybean futures were sharply higher again, up 39c/bu (AUD$20.14) in the May contract. Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola both had gains in the nearby contract but did not follow Chicago beans higher dollar for dollar. The firmer AUD will counter a large slice of the gain in overseas futures today. Spill over buying was evident in both the US wheat and corn futures markets. The Russian / Ukraine issues took a back seat, wheat was instead led higher by outside markets, i.e. soybeans.
Both Canadian and French durum values at the FOB level had good gains, once again the stronger AUD countering this improvement in Aussie dollar per tonne terms but an uptick or 10 in world C&F values may encourage the consumer to the plate in the short term.