Continued increases in US grain futures overnight. Speculation that grain flow from the Black Sea will be affected is the major influence. The media reports that Russian troops are in western Ukraine. A move being condemned by western leaders. Some ag analyst are also expecting to see further increases in fertilizer prices if / when Russian gas supplies to western Europe are restricted, limiting global production. Global stock markets fell away, oil prices increased and grain futures soared. Speculation that ocean frieght rates will increase significantly from the Black Sea region was also a factor to consider.

With the nearby Chicago contract setting a high last night of 877c/bu (AUD$445.69), just beating the short lived December rally, some analyst are worried futures will behave exactly the same way they did in December. Locally basis has absorbed a big slice of the recent rally in US wheat futures. US wheat was and is still the most expensive wheat in the world, one thing is sure, high prices fix high prices. I’m not about to sell this down but a betting man might be tempted to take some new season swaps or at least an option or two.
Currently, as in the Crimean annexure, there has been no disruption to grain exports from either Russian or Ukraine ports.

The money moving out of the stock markets may be getting parked in ags and oil, this could be influencing prices but in the meantime enjoy the rally in US wheat, corn and soybeans. Soybeans have a good fundamental story behind it’s move higher as well. Overnight the stronger soybean market influenced canola and rapeseed futures. Both Winnipeg and Paris putting on double digit gains.