A late harvest in the Indian provinces of Punjab and Haryana (27% production) combined with a poor growing season is probably going to take India, the recently proclaimed saviour of the wheat industry now that Ukraine / Russian exports have slowed, out of the wheat export market completely according to some analyst.
Initially the Indian government had talked about exporting 4-6mt of government stocks to help fill the void left by Ukraine. Domestic Indian values are now expected to increase above the MSP values set by the government.
The 20% to 25% yield reductions in the north are due to a both agronomic and climatic issues. A poor growing season was topped off by late rains. Reducing bushel weight on a crop that was already suffering from small grain. Agronomic factors were basically the result of high fertilizer prices.
Most believe that the government will ban exports once prices make it feasible to export wheat, thus sustaining prices above the MSP but once the export ban takes affect domestic prices are likely to fall back below export parity.
If the government doesn’t place an export ban on wheat it then becomes feasible that India could export anything from 10mt to 15mt of wheat. Ironically placing it in the game sometime prior to their next wheat harvest as an importer of wheat.
This is all playing out as we see India making it to the list of suppliers for both Egypt and Indonesia. Recently we saw an Indian shipment held up as the  certification process had not been adhered to. Yesterday it was announced that this shipment had been allowed through.

Canadian durum belt missed the bulk of last week’s snow storm, remaining dry. Morocco see’s durum production -78% due to drought.