US wheat futures continue to tumble. Minneapolis spring wheat leading the way. Pressure in winter wheat is predominately harvest driven in the states. Less than inspiring weekly wheat export sales data out of the US don’t help. The sales number came in at the low end of expectations and isn’t indicating the US is capturing a huge amount of new business.
The one thing that may help put the brakes on the US spring wheat futures market is the weekly crop condition report. The punters were generally expecting to see an improvement in the crop condition rating. The weekly report, out after the close, indicated a flat rating, with Good / Excellent steady at 59%. If anything the rating could be considered a little more bullish than the number suggests, as there was a 1% drop from excellent to good. With just 8% of the spring wheat crop in the US rated Poor / Very Poor, it’s not exactly in bad nick though, even if that P/VP rating did jump from 6% to 8%.
The corn rating fell from 70% G/E to 67%, that may also slow the corn markets sudden decline. The soybean rating saw a 2% reduction in the G/E rating as well. There’s been some significant storms damage across the US plains in the last ten days.
Sorghum in Texas was rated just 19% Good / 1% Excellent, with 60% in head it may be too late to see any significant improvement there. Other sorghum states, bar Colorado, were generally in much better nick, Kansas rated 54% G/E.
Sorghum values in the US were generally a little stronger in AUD terms, more a function of currency than sorghum price. Argentine FOB prices were sharply lower, back close to AUD$18 up river. Values for sorghum C&F China were also lower, down about AUD$6.00. Most destination prices indicate there is still a buffer in our local price, enough to counter these variations, that buffer is shrinking though.
Hot weather in Ukraine is countering recent rainfall. Wheat production there now pegged at 20.7mt (33mt LY).