Russia reduced their export taxes to come into effect this week. The reduction greatly reduced the cost FOB of wheat to the buyer. This will again bring Russian wheat into play for those buyers who had not been considering Russian wheat over the last 6 months, which were few. Russia said they are expected to remain the world’s number one exporter of wheat again in 2022-23.
Russian confirmed they will be competitive when they matched the lowest price in today’s GASC tender at US$416. Russia sold 5 cargo’s, France 3 and Romania just one cargo. Initially the tender was expected to be filled mostly by French wheat.

Weaker palm oil weighed on the oilseed market. Paris rapeseed futures slipping six euros (AUD$9.11) in the Feb23 slot. Winnipeg canola was sharply lower, falling C$32.70 (AUD$37.03) in the Jan23 slot. Grains are obviously still tied up with the greater sell off in commodities. Oilseeds are impacted more greatly from the entry of Indonesia back into the palm oil market after a short absence.
Ukraine continue to export by road and rail through their western borders. Most analyst are now starting to realise that Ukraine stocks could weigh heavily on global S&Ds in the coming months (wow, didn’t see that coming). Although production is low, carry in will be excessive. I’m still not sure who to add eastern Ukraine wheat carry in against, does it go against the Russian carry in or the Ukraine carry in ?

Hot, humid conditions continue to drag out the US HRWW harvest. Parts of NE Kansas have seen 75 – 100mm of rain over the last two weeks. The rain has also been active across the US spring wheat belt. Central Minnesota seeing 50 – 75mm and much of N.Dakota picking up 15 – 30mm.