4/7/22 Prices

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US wheat and soybean futures were smashed again in overnight trade. The fall takes week on week losses in Chicago soft red winter wheat to 89.75c/bu (AUD$48.40) in the December contract, closing last night at 862.5c/bu (AUD465.15). Soybeans were sharply lower, slipping 61.5c/bu (AUD$33.16) in the Jan 23 contract. The decline in beans was reflected in other oilseeds, Paris rapeseed falling around AUD$34.81 in the Feb 23 slot.

Cash US wheat out of the Pacific North West destined to the Asian markets was also lower. HRWW at 12% protein for an August slot was priced on average at US$10.15c/bu (AUD$547.23). HRWW out of the PNW is now flat priced from 11.5% to 13% protein according to the latest USDA daily prices out of Portland.  Freight from the US PNW to Japan / China / Philippines is roughly about US$46. This would see the HRW out of the PNW land in say the Philippines for something like US$600.
As a comparison French wheat out of the port of Rouen would land in the Philippines for something closer to US$465, Russian wheat is about US$20 higher. Both Russian and French prices do tend to indicate there may be some more downside to the US markets, well HRWW price out of the PNW at least. As for where Aussie values stand into the Asian market, we see FOB values around US$306, with cost to the Philippines probably around US$30 to US$40 to be generous, so around US$350 C&F.
I guess this raises the question why then are Australian values falling when in fact they are already under where the buyer is currently seeing alternative supply. The Aussie price has not followed the US futures market down dollar for dollar. This has resulted in a 42c/bu improvement in new crop basis week on week. Usually you might consider that a lot but with new crop basis still at negative 73c/bu FOB one feels there is still a lot of buffer left in local bids.

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