International analysts are torn between “we are about to see the biggest bear market of all time”, to “the lows are in, get ready for a massive jump”. There is basically a report out there to cover any sentiment you wish to carry now. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.

The bears are using a whole raft of macro measures to determine the downside potential. Global economic collapse a major ingredient in this pot of misery. The outside markets will undoubtedly play a role but as a physical producer the fundamentals will always come home to roost. In that case a look at the world S&Ds tends to indicate that we are not about to head into a global famine unless it is manmade. There is plenty of grains in the world, some commodities not as plentiful as others but generally if logistics were to be allowed to work freely, ending stocks would more likely continue to fall.
At this stage, the delays in exports from location like the Black Sea are simply building world ending stocks and that is generally bearish.

The USDA put out their weekly US crop progress report overnight. 94% of the US corn crop is now flowering. From about Kansas south it was 38C yesterday. Kansas has 63% of the corn crop in the dough stage. The US corn G/E rating fell another 1% to 57%.
The spring wheat harvest is progressing, Montana is 26% complete, it’s been a hot dry summer across much of the western spring wheat belt. In the east, Minnesota, and N.Dakota are 12% and 5% harvested respectively.  The G/E rating for US spring wheat was unchanged at 64% but the split between good and excellent did change. Last week the split was 55% / 9% G/E, this week we see the split at 58% G / 6% E. So, the crop continues to decline.
Wheat futures generally followed outside markets lower. S.Arabia picked up 180kt of new crop feed wheat.