26/8/22 Prices

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Profit taking dominated the US markets with soybeans, corn and wheat futures all falling against a possible uptick in demand. I say possible increase because the number the USDA put out, soybeans at 300 million bushels, should have sent the market surging higher.
The punters instead dismissed the number as incorrect. By the close of trading the USDA had not commented if the number was indeed a mistake or was correct but did make an announcement later in the day. The USDA confirming their new reporting system had indeed created a few mistakes. FAS took the system offline and are now checking the new system for accuracy. Prior to the report release the trade had estimated weekly soybean sales at roughly 12.9mbu to 47.8mbu, a far cry from the reported 300mbu.

The US corn tour is proving to be interesting reading. Yield reports vary wildly from field to field and state to state. Some fields in the western corn belt not even producing an ear of corn, simply dyeing while some fields in the east are likely to produce close to record yields. Generally, the punters are struggling to make their estimate equal the average yield estimate that the USDA is currently projecting though. https://www.agweb.com/croptour.

EU corn imports continue to increase. Is the increase in corn imports the real litmus paper to the dry conditions across Europe this summer. Current imports for this marketing year come in at, 3.2mt,  625,671 tonnes just last week. If this rate persists, we could see imports increase by 5 – 6mt for 22-23.
This continues to support a narrowing of the feed grade spreads we are seeing between milling wheat and feed wheat. Although USDA projections currently don’t back this up. At some point the corn / wheat spread will narrow and wheat will buy feed demand if this rate of corn demand continues.

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