Iraq picked up 100kt of US wheat for October shipment over the weekend.  The price was huge, some say the US hard red winter wheat was priced at US$494 CiF. Iraq is expected to purchase around 4.5 to 5mt of wheat this marketing year. A slight increase as they attempt to reduce the cost of imported flour. On the back of an envelope US$494 for a H2 type of wheat would equate to an ex-farm LPP price in the vicinity of AUD$590. New crop values here are nowhere near this value, they are closer to AUD$360 XF, we can only speculate why the US sale value is so high.
Russian wheat would have landed in Iraq for a number closer to US$380 to US$400CiF. A US$380CiF Iraq number would compare to something closer to AUD$400 – AUD$420 XF LPP. Either way the sale and subsequent comparisons to Russian wheat values continues to indicate that the Aussie product remains very competitive in the global market.

Ukraine grain exports are picking up. On Sept 4th 13 ships left Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi ports with around 282,500 tonnes of grain. Most of the grain loading at present has been corn. Since the agreement with Russia to open the Black Sea up again for Ukraine grain exports, around 1.2mt has moved on around 50 ships. Of these shipments around 60kt of Ukraine wheat has been allocated as food aid from the WFP into Ethiopia and Yemen.
Although these shipments are not exactly flooding the world with Ukraine grain the agreement to open a Black Sea corridor has resulted in wheat futures at the US CME exchange trading back to pre-Ukraine / Russia war values. The UN expect to continue to throttle the supply of Ukraine wheat leaving the Black Sea in order to prevent further deterioration in physical wheat values potentially triggering contractual issues.
Contract issues may also become a problem in Germany where the domestic wheat price is above export parity leaving less grain for export contracts.