When Chicago wheat broke through the 100-day moving average the market started to feel a little top heavy according to some analyst. These analysts appeared to have been right as the market did suffer some technical selling overnight closing in the red across all three US red wheat grades.
Interesting to note that white wheat values out of the US Pacific Northwest did not fall, they actually rallied a little closing at 992c/bu according to the daily USDA price analysis sheet. This is roughly equivalent to APW1 wheat in quality, and that price, if using Japan as an end user, would compare roughly to an ex-farm LPP price close to AUD$500 per tonne in a normal year.
The punters blamed talk of recession and higher interest rates as the catalyst for the lower close in wheat, corn, and soybeans at Chicago. The stronger USD would not be helping. Overnight the AUD trended lower against the USD. At one stage almost taking back much of the session losses only to close with a dramatic decline pushing the AUD to 65.12 before the close. The lowest we’ve seen the AUD since May 2020.

As the Russian wheat crop gets bigger and bigger, we are starting to see their exports increase as they slowly reduce the export tax they’ve had in place for some time. The tax was initially implemented to slow exports over a year ago, shoring up domestic supply ahead of their invasion of Ukraine in February. Since their harvest started the import tax has been reduced, as it was again this week. From Sept 28th to Oct 4th, it will be set at 2476.6 rubles. At today’s exchange rate that is about US$42.48 per tonne, down about US$2.30 per tonne week on week.

Conditions in SE China remains very dry. There’s been some storms to the NW of central China this week, but elsewhere little rain has fallen.