31/10/22 Prices
US wheat futures drifted lower in overnight trade. The firmer USD and thoughts that US wheat is too expensive to encourage export sales the main fundamental reasons behind the fall.
The weakness in US values spilled over to ex farm bids across SE Saskatchewan but generally prices in Canada were flat.
Winnipeg canola futures were back C$4.20 in the March slot. Ex farm cash canola bids in SE Sask taking the lead from the exchange and falling about the same value for a nearby pickup. The Paris market was also lower, falling E2.97 for the Feb 23 slot, roughly about AUD$4.62 per tonne. The weaker AUD should go some ways to countering the lower closes in US wheat and canola / rapeseed futures on Monday.
Cash bids for SE Sask 1CWAD13 durum were flat. Canadian durum production estimates remain mixed, SaskAg claims production at 5.6mt while StatsCanada remain happy to run with 6.1mt. Quality was generally pretty good. After last year’s poor crop reducing carry in and the issues currently plaguing eastern Australia this should help durum sustain a reasonable spread to milling wheat and find buyers coming to the plate more readily.
Canadian durum exports have slowed recently, back around 14% from this time last year when consumers entered the market early to cover supply from a drought affected Canadian crop.
So, you think $5000/ac is a bit rich, well a 116.69 acre block in Nebraska recently sold for $27,400/ac and a nearby block made $14,400…. that’s US dollars too. With over 70% of the US wheat belt in moderate drought this kind of return would be tempting for many.