02/12/22

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US corn, wheat and soybean futures were all lower in overnight trade. Weakness in US soybean futures spilt into the Winnipeg canola market which shed a massive C$30.70 on the nearby contract.
US soybean faced an uphill battle after the biodiesel mandate news was less than hoped for. The US EPA announced blending requirements that are currently below the output capability of current production facilities.  A slap in the face for those that have invested heavily on biodiesel production over the last 12 months in anticipation of an increase greater than what is being mandated currently.
With Brazil expected to produce a record soybean crop and Argentina using the soydollar again to encourage sales the last thing the US soybean market needed was bearish local news.
Wheat futures had nowhere to go, the row crop market sentiment spilling over into wheat. US export wheat sales were not great, weekly wheat export inspections were as expected but overall, still lag slightly behind the same yearly volume from this time last year.

Thailand picked up 123kt of Australian feed wheat. Turkey picked up feed barley overnight, prices are unconfirmed but appear to be around US$304 CFR, which on the back of an envelope would equate to a rough XFLPP price of about AUD$300.
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on how Russia is said to have exported stolen Ukraine wheat, link attached. It’s an interesting read and well researched. Although only stating what most have expected, it does help one understand two things. The record crop Russia just harvested and the huge increase in exports out of Sevastopol. It will also help remove some of the guess work about carry over stock in Ukraine and Russian.

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