1/12/22 Prices

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The strength in the AUD threatens to undo a significant rally in both ICE canola futures at Winnipeg and Paris rapeseed futures. Paris put on AUD$21.09 on the nearby contract and Winnipeg was up close to AUD$10.31. The change in AUD/EUR is worth about -AUD$4.00.
The weaker USD was also seen as positive for US wheat futures prices with all three of the major grades underlying futures contracts trading higher. Values for both hard and spring wheat out of the US Pacific Northwest reflected the moves high in futures while white wheat values there were flat. The improvement in the AUD may go a long way to counter any of those moves being reflected in local prices here today.

The Pakistan wheat tender numbers are in, and some are pretty cheap. Dubai registered Cereal Crops offered Russian wheat at US$372, that was the cheapest. Other offers were generally closer to US$380 with the highest offer being CHS at US$397.80.
On the back of an envelope, we can convert the numbers to a comparable local price. The lowest offer is comparable to a values of over AUD$500 XFLPP indicating that local values here are indeed very cheap compared to export values. The local H2 site price yesterday just AUD$413 Gunnedah.

The latest USDA crop progress report for new crop winter wheat showed a slight improvement of 2% for the crop rated Good / Excellent, now pegged at 34%. This leaves 40% rated fair and 26% rated poor / very poor. About 91% of the US winter wheat crop has now emerged. The US winter wheat crop will need an incredibly good spring to turn this winter wheat crop around.
In Argentina, the weather is still very dry with much or Cordoba seeing less than 10mm over the last fortnight, less than 20% of the average.

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