It’s a sea of red out there this morning, no green, sorry one green marker for Jan24 Chicago soymeal, up 0.1, that’s hardly worth mentioning. US wheat futures were all lower, pulling FOB values lower out of the Pacific Northwest. White wheat values out of the PNW had shown much less volatility than the red wheat over the last couple of week but WW also closed lower. US white wheat, when converted to a rough ex farm LPP equivalent using Japan or China as the consumer is now very close to our local values, even though white wheat did not shed the $9.00/t that the red wheats did.
The reason for the fall is a little lame, the resumption of Ukraine ship inspections from the Black Sea. This may of had some kind of fundamental trigger but the fall could be more of a technical nature than a fundamental collapse given the higher closes on Friday and Monday.
The chance of Russia walking away from the Grain Corridor deal on May 18th is a possibility but not something that the majority of punters are backing. Anything contrary to the resumption of the deal will be a major fundamental shift.

Russia is predicting a sharply lower wheat crop for 2023, back from 100mt last year to 78mt this year. The latest estimate takes into account grain grown across eastern Ukraine where Russia currently claims annexation. The smaller crop may see Russia slow exports later this year in an attempt to secure domestic supplies into 2024 but the crop should be enough to ensure export sales are still plentiful.

Some rain is expected across the parched US hard red winter wheat belt late next week. The system may also produce some good rain across Alberta and Saskatchewan. 25 – 50mm may not break the drought in Kansas but it does come at a crucial time for any wheat that was heading backwards.