There’s not a lot of green on the board this morning, the recent sell off in grains continued again last night. US and EU futures markets both lower with wheat, corn, and oilseeds all shedding value by the close.
Nearby Paris milling wheat futures were hit hard, back E7.25 in the May contract. We may see further liquidation of the May wheat contracts at both Paris and Chicago as we draw closer to the end of April. Volume in the May slot at Chicago is still high, not as high as the July slot, but still relatively high for this close to the end of the month. The stochastic isn’t supportive of anything other than further selling, so not a lot of technical support.

Fundamentally the rain expected across the HRWW belt in the US is also considered a little bearish. Resulting in most punters remaining on the sell side of that market in the short term.  World Ag Weather has the GFS 7-day model predicting falls of 25-75mm across the HRWW belt next week. Heaviest around the eastern Kansas / Oklahoma border and NE Texas. The driest parts of western Kansas are expected to see about 15-30mm. Any less than this could see markets respond positively.
Paris milling wheat moved against reports of the French wheat crop declining 1% in the G/VG condition rating. A fall from 94% to 93% rated G/VG isn’t exactly worrying the flour millers much though.
Spain remains in terrible shape; some reports predict wheat and barley fields to be fed off or simply die unless there is some immediate relief. Looking at the weather forecast for Spain reveals that there is no prospect for rain in the short term. Failure of Spain’s barley crop should play into the hands of France. If China allows Aussie barley back in, the lack of barley in Spain will help France who have been selling into the Chinese market.