This month’s WASDE gave us the USDA’s first monthly stab at the 2023-24 data. World wheat production is expected to be about 1.5mt higher than last year in 2023-24. The lower beginning stocks number is expected to roll through to result in a year on year decline in ending stock by this time next year.  There is expected to be slight reductions to domestic usage globally, thus exports are expected to slightly decline. Early days, but if the current rate of exports is to continue from the likes of Russia and Australia than lower exports is a very questionable assumption indeed.
In the old crop the USDA increased world ending stocks month on month while raising the level of exports for Australia, Canada, Ukraine and the UK while reducing exports for Russia, yes I wrote Russia, this flies against a lot of estimates from analysts closer to the Black Sea. The USDA also reduced EU exports for the old crop.
The increase in current crop Australian exports does reduce Aussie ending stocks to just 3.15mt, a far cry from the 6mt comfort zone of years before the drought. Aussie ending stocks are not expected to increase greatly for the 2023-24 crop, even with a 29mt crop forecast.
Argentina is expected to produce a more traditional volume of wheat this year, estimated at 19.5mt, but will see ending stocks remain very tight at just 2.04mt. Brazil is pencilled in for another 10mt wheat crop. China is pencilled in for a crop of similar size to this last years, 136.76mt vs 139.08mt 23-24.
Black Sea production is expected to decline, Russia falling from a record this year, USDA estimate of 92mt, back to 81.5mt and Ukraine falling from 20.9mt to 16.5mt. Ukraine exports are pegged at 10mt versus a 15mt projection for the last season. Russian exports are expected to increase 1mt to 45.5mt for the new crop.
US opening wheat stocks are projected lower by 2.72mt, production is pegged at 45.15mt, up 244kt on last year, that’s a big call.