16/5/23 Prices

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The USDA weekly US crop progress report was out last night. Corn planting continues on at a brisk pace, now estimated at 65% sown (5-year Avg 59%). Soybeans were also ahead of the 5-year average pace, 49% sown vs the avg of 36%. Cotton planting was close to the average pace at 35% in the ground. Sorghum sowing in Texas was estimated at 76% complete. The sowing pace for sorghum in Oklahoma and Kansas is now picking up, 23% and 7% sown respectively.
US winter wheat heading was pegged at 49%. The Kansas crop is now more than half in head, at 54%. Just 10% of the Kansas winter wheat crop is now rated at G/E. This is back another 2% from what was already a dismal estimate. 68% of the Kansas crop is rated at P/VP, this is the same as last week, but the split has improved a little with 3% of the crop moving up from very poor to poor after recent rains.
Spring wheat sowing was pegged at 24% complete, this is well behind the average for mid-May, which is 38%. N.Dakota and Minnesota are both very slow this year. Heavy rain across southern MN and the western Dakotas over the last few days will not help greatly in next week’s report.

NDVI maps from Ukraine and Russia show that the Black Sea region could be in for a very good wheat crop this year. Rainfall has been almost ideal over the last 30 days and the current drier weather is also helping establishment and root growth.
Unfortunately, Spain has not seen any decent rain and there is nothing in the forecast. France and Germany remain in almost perfect condition. Good rainfall across parts of Italy were welcome, and the prospect of more rain to fall across Italy over the next week will help durum production there.
Saskatchewan remains abnormally dry, it’s not a big issue just yet but keep an eye on this as we move into June.

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