The jump in US wheat futures overnight was attributed to both poor crop ratings in the US along with a slow harvest pace, as well as developments in the Russia / Ukraine war.
With just 37% of the US winter wheat crop in the bin it is starting to fall behind the 5-year average of 46%. Further showers and storms are expected across the US HRWW belt and the soft red winter wheat regions further north over the next 7 days. Delays, and possible quality issues are now starting to gain some traction.
Ukraine accused Russia of placing “possible explosive devices” on some of the building at the Zaporizhia Nuclear power station. A couple of weeks ago the dam that supplied water to the facility was blow, flooding lower reaches of the River and cutting off water supplies to Crimea. A nuclear meltdown would create a big issue for that part of the world. As to who would benefit the most from such an event is hard to determine. Depending on wind direction this may render significant swaths, of what was irrigated farmland, between the site and Crimea useless.

Thailand picked up 60kt of Black Sea feed wheat, most likely from Bulgaria or Romania as Russia was excluded from the tender. ADM was said to have supplied the September contract at US$260.50 C&F. On the back of an envelope this is roughly equivalent to somewhere around AUD$300 ex farm, well below current old crop SFW1 values in NNSW and also well below SFW1 values in SE QLD which are priced around AUD$420 delivered end user there.

Algeria was said to have picked up between 200-250kt of durum in their latest tender. Tunisia picked up 100kt of durum and 100kt of soft wheat.